Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 2)

The SPX index lost 69bps during the Tuesday session, closing at 6415.  The low on the day ticked well below 6400 (ref 6360) but the index managed to recover over 50% of the early session losses by the close.  Momentum and trend indicators degraded further.  My Spot VIX signal remains “risk on” but will flip back to “neutral” on the close tomorrow.  My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on” but was extremely active and volatile during the session.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative.  All that said, even with the loss on the day, price action was more resilient than it may seem.  The session’s stick was somewhat bullish as the index closed at the top end of the range with the Aug 20 low (ref 6343) holding on an intraday basis and the 6400 level holding on a closing basis.  My stance remains the same, “I would be flat here but ready to get very short on a break below 6400.”

Trade Support:

6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28) (TESTED)

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6481: All-Time High (Aug 15)

6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel