Wednesday, October 15th, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 3)
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) lost 12bps on the session, closing at 6686. The low on the day (ref 6593) came, once again, on a brief break/test of the 50dma (ref 6607). This is a key level and one which I am focused on for the near term. Momentum and trend indicators continued to degrade. However, my Spot VIX signal re-established a “risk on” posture. My VIX Term Structure signal remains “neutral”. I would note that these VIX signals are peripheral within the portfolio but are not the ACAP Model signal. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal for the ES1 Index remains Negative. All said, the ACAP signal was very productive taking advantage of the Oct9/Oct10 ~3% selloff. However, based on overall action and inputs, I would wait for a break below the 50dma (ref 6613) to get outright short. I do believe we are seeing the beginning of a regime change from a low volatility/bull market to a high volatility/bear market. That said, there seems to be some more work to be done before a real move lower begins.
Trade Support:
6613: 50dma
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
6723: 20dma
6812: All-Time High (Oct 9)