Wednesday, November 19th, 2025
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) lost another 78bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 6639. The index continues to press through the lower Bollinger Band (ref 6659) as momentum and trend indicators continue to degrade. My Spot VIX signal is “neutral” and, more importantly, my VIX Term Structure signal shifted to “risk off”. The recent peak-to-trough move of -5.17% has been choppy and has pushed volatility much higher than was generally expected (I suspect). It was a slight positive that the index low ticked at 6594, quietly testing and holding support at the 100dma (ref 6599). Bottom line, I remain focused on the 6730 level with a short bias below and a long bias above (this has worked). In managing that position, I would be reducing the short exposure here (ref 6648) and gradually covering the balance of the short as/if the index approaches and trades back above 6730. If the index were to break back below the 100dma I would put those shorts back out and focus on our downside target of 6540.
Trade Support:
6753: 50dma (BROKEN)
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
6809: 20dma
6900: Nov 12 High
7050: Measure Move from Consolidation
