Wednesday, July 12th Chart

What you need to know

ES1 (SP500 Generic Front Month) - 7.12.23 *I realize how monotonous the last few weeks of reports have been.  I have continued to repeat a few major points. - First, 4500 was our ultimate upside target for the rally/breakout above 4200 back in the beginning of June. Also, the 4500 level is major resistance and represents the 76.4% retracement level for the entire peak-to-trough move (Jan 2022 - Oct 2022). - Second, momentum (M1, M2) on both tests of 4500 (A, B) have diverged negatively from price suggesting that higher prices are not likely. - Third, I have continued to target the 10dma, 4400 and 4300 as likely downside targets. The question now is will we see a third test of 4500 and failure (C?) or will the Index press through with enough improvement in momentum to make it count.  As of this morning, I continue to see the next move for the Index as down.  I continue to see 4500 as solid resistance which will hold and, based on the structure, continue to see 4300 as a solid downside target for the near term.  If this changes I will shift and set up for upside targets above 4500 but for now this is not the higher probability move. Trading Support:

• 4400:  Previous Support; 10dma at 4460
• 4300:  Previous Resistance
• 4200:  Previous Resistance; 50dma at 4299
• 4100:  Key Level; Previous Support/Resistance

Trading Resistance:

• 4500:  Previous Resistance; 76.4% retracement level