Wednesday, August 6th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 5)

The SPX index lost 49bps on the session, closing at 6299.  The high on the day (ref 6346) marked a test and failure at the 10dma (ref 6344) and a failed attempt at re-entering the highlighted uptrend channel (see chart).  In my opinion, for the index to regain some footing and breakout above 6400 it needs to break back into and hold within this intermediate term uptrend channel.  My momentum and trend indicators remain paused.  My Spot VIX signal is “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative.  As I wrote yesterday, “I would expect a shift back to Neutral as the index attempts to re-enter the uptrend channel (see chart).”  All in, the ACAP signal identified a nice short trade from ~6390 down to ~6320.  Under the current set up, I have covered my shorts and am flat above 6200, long on a signal shift to Positive and a breakout above 6350.

Trade Support:

6200: July 7 Low (TESTED)

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)

6400: July 28 All-Time High