Tuesday, September 9th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 2)

The SPX index gained 21bps on the session yesterday, closing at 6495.  The session was relatively quiet as the high/low range of 6508/6483 was tight and well within Friday’s range of 6532/6443.  Momentum and trend indicators held.  My Spot VIX signal remains “neutral”.  My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Neutral.  As I have mentioned, there is significant negative divergence within the current setup suggesting a sharp reversal down is possible.  I think this will take more time.  Currently, I continue to believe that the index is consolidating with price setting up for a ~5% push higher into year end.  I believe the current structure is in line with 2021 in that the larger trade from here is down but there is still enough room to the upside to be patient, properly sized and long (on an ACAP signal shift).

Trade Support:

6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6481: All-Time High (Aug 15)

6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel