Tuesday, September 23rd, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 9)

The SPX index gained 44bps on the session, hitting yet another all-time high (ref 6698) and all-time closing high (ref 6693).  My momentum and trend indicators continue to expand.  My Spot VIX signal remains “neutral”.  My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal is Positive.  I have continued to view risk over the past two months as skewed to the upside with a reasonable year-end target range of 6700-7000.  In fact, on September 8 with the index at ~6500 I wrote, “I believe price action has been relatively constructive.  I expect a shift to Neutral (and Positive) in the near term as the index seems poised for a run higher.”  My view has not changed.

Trade Support:

6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6481: All-Time High (Aug 15) (BROKEN)

6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel (BROKEN)

6802: Fibonacci Projection (123.6%)

7035: Fibonacci Projection (138.2%)