Tuesday, October 14th, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 2)
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) gained 1.51% on the session, closing at 6704. The high on the day (ref 6711) was 2.62% above Friday’s low (ref 6540) and just shy of the Bollinger 20dma (ref 6722). Momentum and trend indicators continued to degrade. My Spot VIX signal shifted to “risk on”. My VIX Term Structure signal remains “neutral”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal for the ES1 Index remains Negative. The headline driven spike in volatility is settling back down. As I wrote yesterday, “I would say that although the ACAP signal has shifted to Negative, I would wait for a break below the 50dma (ref 6529) to get outright short.” That approach seems to have been correct and is avoiding losses/churn within the portfolio. The 50dma is currently a focus and is ticking at 6602.
NOTE - The ACAP Portfolio is a concentrated basket of assets. This basket, by design, is distilled down to exposure in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Gold, Crude Oil and the VIX. We are currently fundraising for the Series F Interests. I would be happy to discuss any questions or interest in the fund. Please reach out to me directly as an accredited investor at Anthony.Esposito@AscalonVICapital.com.
Trade Support:
6602: 50dma
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
6722: 20dma
6812: All-Time High (Oct 9)