Tuesday, July 1st, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 3)

The SPX index gained 52bps again yesterday, closing at a new all-time high of 6204.  Momentum and trend indicators are set up well for additional upside.  My Spot VIX signal has shifted to “neutral” from a very productive “risk on” signal which triggered back on May 26.  My VIX Term Structure signal is “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal is Positive.  Based on the current set up, the index has room to the upside and seems poised to take it.  Risk is skewed to the upside.

Trade Support:

5750: 38.2% Retracement Peak-to-Trough

5700: Previous Support Sep/Nov

5500:  ~10% Move Peak-to-Trough

5400: Sep 2024 Lows and Apr 3 Low/Close

Trade Resistance:

6000: Previous Support (BROKEN)

6100: Previous Support (BROKEN)

6147: All-Time High (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)