Tuesday, August 5th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)

The SPX index gained 1.49% on the session, closing at 6329.  As I wrote yesterday coming off Friday’s gap down, “At this time risk remains skewed to the downside but I would be focused on reducing short exposure unless 6200 breaks.  Model aside, I could easily see the index rally off Friday’s low (ref 6212) as the VIX settles back down to the 18 level.”  The index did in fact rally off Friday’s lows and the VIX closed the session down 14% at 17.52.  All this as my momentum and trend indicators paused.  My Spot VIX signal is “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative.  All in, I would expect a shift back to Neutral as the index attempts to re-enter the uptrend channel (see chart).

Trade Support:

6200: July 7 Low (TESTED)

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)

6400: July 28 All-Time High