Tuesday, August 12th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 3)

The SPX index lost 25bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 6373.  The index again tested the base of the intermediate term uptrend channel at the day’s high (ref 6407).  This was the highest intraday tick since the gap down on Aug 1.   My momentum and trend indicators are holding.  My Spot VIX signal is “risk on”.  VIX Term Structure is “risk on” as well.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Neutral.  As I wrote last week, “Overall, risk is evenly distributed here.  That said, the index seems poised for a push back into the uptrend channel (see chart) and a potential breakout above 6400.  If that does occur with a model shift to Positive, I would expect a test of 6600 in the intermediate term.  The key here is can the index re-enter the uptrend channel within the next few sessions.”  For now, my view remains the same.

Trade Support:

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High) (TESTED)

6400: July 28 All-Time High (TESTED)