Thursday, August 7th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 6)

The SPX index gained 73bps yesterday, closing at 6345.  This close was just above the 10dma (ref 6342) and just below the bottom of the intermediate term uptrend channel (ref ~6370).  Momentum and trend indicators were flat.  My Spot VIX signal is “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative.  As I wrote yesterday, “All in, the ACAP signal identified a nice short trade from ~6390 down to ~6220.  Under the current set up, I have covered my shorts and am flat above 6200, long on a signal shift to Positive and a breakout above 6350.”

Trade Support:

6200: July 7 Low (TESTED)

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High)

6400: July 28 All-Time High