Monday, September 22nd, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 8)
The SPX index gained 49bps during Friday’s session, hitting a new all-time high (ref 6671) and all-time closing high (ref 6664). My momentum and trend indicators continue to expand as price emerges from the Aug 13-Sep 4 consolidation. My Spot VIX signal remains “neutral”. My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal is Positive. As I wrote back on Aug 22, “ACAP signal aside for a moment, I would be a buyer above 6400 and a seller below 6343 (Aug 20 low).” That approach has paid off well as the index is now ~4% above that 6400 level with risk skewed to the upside.
Trade Support:
6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
6100: Previous Support
6000: Previous Support
Trade Resistance:
6481: All-Time High (Aug 15) (BROKEN)
6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel (BROKEN)
6802: Fibonacci Projection (123.6%)
7035: Fibonacci Projection (138.2%)