Monday, October 27th, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: POSITIVE (Day Count = 1)
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) gained 77bps during Friday’s session, hitting a new all-time high (ref 6841) and a new all-time closing high (ref 6827). My Spot VIX signal remains “risk on”. My VIX Term Structure signal shifted back to “risk on”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal for the ES1 Index remains Negative. In last Monday’s note I wrote that, “The peripheral VIX signals I run are sloppy suggesting a large move is developing.” At that time, I also saw risk as skewed to the downside. However, that view changed very early last week as I continued to post on X (@CMT_Anthony) that, “I expect a shift to Positive in the next few sessions and a year end run to 7k. The index did shift to Positive during Friday’s session and is pushing back into the upper Bollinger Band. I see a clear set up for a run to 7k by year end.
Trade Support:
6749: 20dma
6658: 50dma
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
7050: Measure Move from Consolidation