Monday, October 13th, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 1)
The SPX index lost 2.71% on the day Friday, closing at 6552. This was the largest single session drop since April 7 (down 4.34%) as the VIX Index rallied ~40%. Momentum and trend indicators reversed hard. My Spot VIX signal shifted to “risk off”. My VIX Term Structure signal shifted “neutral”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal shifted to Negative. As I wrote Friday morning before this abrupt sell-off, “Even as the current signal appears to be close to flipping, I continue to see risk as skewed to the upside with a test of 6802 in the near term likely.” That flip was aggressive and abrupt. The index not only reversed but it literally pivoted off an all-time high to slice through all indicators and the entire Bollinger Band, closing below the lower band (ref 6559). I would say that although the ACAP signal has shifted to Negative, I would wait for a break below the 50dma (ref 6529) to get outright short. Coming out of the Positive signal I would cut the long exposure for a decent gain and sit.
Update 1 - I write the Morning Technical Note based on the SPX cash index. I do this even though the ACAP Portfolio S&P 500 exposure is based on the S&P 500 futures (root = ES). This has been my approach as it eliminates confusion in pricing gaps which develop due to term structure and roll. That said, I do believe that the futures are more fluid and in cases such as the recent signal, more accurate/timely. I have decided to start referencing the Generic 1st S&P 500 E-mini contracts (ES1 Index) moving forward in this report. In addition, I will be issuing intraday comment from time to time on X under my handle @CMT_Anthony. Please follow me there for those updates.
Update 2 - The ACAP Portfolio is a concentrated basket of assets. This basket, by design, is distilled down to exposure in the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Gold, Crude Oil and the VIX. We are currently fundraising for the Series F Interests. I would be happy to discuss any questions or interest in the fund. Please reach out to me directly as an accredited investor at Anthony.Esposito@AscalonVICapital.com.
Trade Support:
6600: Previous Resistance (BROKEN)
6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)
6200: July 7 Low
6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)
Trade Resistance:
6802: Fibonacci Projection (123.6%)
7035: Fibonacci Projection (138.2%)