Monday, November 10th, 2025
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) gained 9bps during Friday’s session, closing at 6753. This close was significantly higher than the late session low of 6655 (marked an intra-day move of -1.36%) and created what I see as a reversal bar ending the recent Oct 30 through Nov 7 peak-to-trough downside move of -4.29%. It is important to note that the index, over the past 7 sessions, has faded from breaking above the upper Bollinger Band (ref 6953) to essentially testing the lower band (ref 6655). This move was aggressive and orderly but developed with mixed confirmation. While momentum and trend indicators faded and confirmed price action, volatility and spot VIX indicators remained tempered. All in, the ~5% dip seems to have run its course. As I mentioned last week, I would be short below 6730. Above that level I would remain flat and ready to take on long exposure heading into December.
Trade Support:
6792: 20dma (BROKEN)
6718: 50dma
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
7050: Measure Move from Consolidation