Daily Technical Analysis

Market Report 

Market Summary

The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) gained 46bps during Friday’s shortened session, closing at 6918. This was the first time the index has closed above 6900 since Nov 12 and it did so with expanding/confirming internals. My Spot VIX signal is “risk on” (this is important). My VIX Term Structure signal has shifted to “risk on” as well. As I have continued to write, risk is skewed to the upside with the index above 6730. I continue to keep a long bias above this level and a short bias below. The bias clearly shifted today back to long. I expect very choppy action into the end of the year with risk currently skewed to the upside in the near term. On a broader note, I am starting to see signs of weakness on my intermediate and long-term counts. While the index could easily push higher in the short-term, we need these longer-term signals to improve significantly to reduce the risk of a shift to a High Vol-Bear regime in 2026. The 6540 level will be crucial over the coming months.📈

Support Levels

• 6820: 50dma
• 6730: Previous Support/Resistance
• 6687: 100dma
• 6540: Oct 10 Low (Crucial Support)

📉

Resistance Levels

• 6900: Nov 12 High
• 7050: Measure Move from Consolidation

Technical Chart

Risk Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing in commodity interests involves substantial risk of loss. All trading decisions should be made in consultation with a qualified financial advisor.