Friday, September 5th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 4)

The SPX index gained 83bps on the session yesterday, closing above 6500 at a new all-time closing high of 6502.08.  There was some confirming improvement as well in my momentum and trend indicators.  My Spot VIX signal is “neutral”.  My VIX Term Structure signal remains “risk on”.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal remains Negative.  As I have continued to write over the past few sessions, ACAP signal aside, I believe price action has been relatively constructive.  I expect a shift to Neutral (and Positive) in the near term as the index seems poised for a run higher.

Trade Support:

6400: Previous All-Time High (July 28)

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6481: All-Time High (Aug 15) (BROKEN)

6600: Mid-Point of Uptrend Channel