Friday, October 17th, 2025
Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEGATIVE (Day Count = 5)
The ES1 Index (Generic 1st Month S&P 500 E-mini) lost 69bps during yesterday’s session, closing at 6668. The low on the day (ref 6632) came within 13 handles of the highlighted support level at the 50dma (ref 6619). Momentum and trend indicators continued to degrade. I am very surprised to see both my Spot VIX signal and my VIX Term Structure signal shift to “risk off”. The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal for the ES1 Index remains Negative. All said, I would be short the ES1 index at current levels (ref 6659) based on the ACAP Negative signal and the peripheral VIX signals flashing warning signs.
Trade Support:
6623: 50dma
6540: Oct 10 low
Trade Resistance:
6720: 20dma
6812: All-Time High (Oct 9)