Friday, August 8th, 2025

Current ACAP Momentum/Trend Model Signal: NEUTRAL (Day Count = 1)

The SPX index lost a modest 8bps yesterday, closing at 6340.  However, the session was much more volatile than that with a wide high/low range of 6389/6310 (over 1%).  My momentum and trend indicators have improved slightly as the index struggles to break back into the uptrend channel which it gapped down out of on August 1.  My Spot VIX signal is “risk on”.  VIX Term Structure is “risk on” as well.  The ACAP Momentum/Trend Model signal has shifted to Neutral.  Overall, risk is evenly distributed here.  That said, the index seems poised for a push back into the uptrend channel (see chart) and a potential breakout above 6400.  If that does occur with a model shift to Positive, I would expect a test of 6600 in the intermediate term.  The key here is can the index re-enter the uptrend channel within the next few sessions.

Trade Support:

6200: July 7 Low

6147: Previous All-Time High (Feb 19)

6100: Previous Support

6000: Previous Support

Trade Resistance:

6284: All-Time High (Jul 3) (BROKEN)

6390: Fibonacci Projection (Aug ’22 Low to Feb ’24 High) (TESTED)

6400: July 28 All-Time High