Anthony Esposito: Consumer Spending Will Hold Up—But Confidence Won’t Recover Without Major Policy Shifts
Ascalon VI Capital founder and CEO Anthony Esposito says Americans will continue spending through the holiday season, but only by leaning heavily on credit. He noted that consumer credit card debt has soared to $5 trillion, yet shoppers are still expected to push holiday spending toward the $1 trillion mark. Despite tightening wallets, Esposito believes consumers will “do what they always do” — spend — though the strain is growing more visible.
The broader concern, he said, is collapsing consumer sentiment. Even as headline inflation has dropped from its peak, the accumulated price increases of the last four years — roughly 28% across the board — continue to weigh on households. Esposito warned that shoppers are turning more to credit cards and buy-now-pay-later programs because real wages haven’t kept pace with the cost of living. That pressure, he argued, is a direct result of what he called four years of damaging economic policy.
Esposito emphasized that at Ascalon VI Capital, he evaluates these data through a long-term, top-down lens. Holiday performance matters, he said, but its real value is as a signal for the next two to three quarters. For him, consumer credit trends, inflation trajectories, and confidence readings are essential indicators for mapping where the economy is headed into 2026 — not just how shoppers behave this weekend.
Looking ahead, Esposito said restoring consumer confidence will require following the economic approach laid out in Trump’s first term, arguing that strong fiscal, monetary, and White House policy previously lifted confidence from 90 to 130. He predicted that if those strategies continue, the U.S. will see rising confidence, a stronger job market, and inflation brought back under control. As for the Federal Reserve, Esposito said the institution has “painted itself into many corners” and will ultimately have no choice but to cut interest rates — if only to make servicing the nation’s $38 trillion debt more manageable.
